主题：iphone进入中国看来已经板上钉钉

AAPL May Take 20% Of China Smartphones, Analyst Says
Posted by Eric Savitz
Apple (AAPL) should quickly take 20% of China’s smartphone market once the company launches a deal with a carrier to sell the IPhone in the country, says Scott Craig, an analyst at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.

In a research note this morning, Craig took a look at the prospects for distribution of the phone in China, given recent reports indicating that a deal with China Unicom (CHU) could be in the works. “Our Asia supply chain checks seem to indicate that Apple believes it can achieve an initial penetration rate,least on a sell-in basis, similar to the iPhone launch in the U.S.,” of about 20%, he writes. “In fact, given our channel checks in Asia, Apple likely believes it can easily meet (and likely exceed) this and/or believes in other scenarios that result in much higher unit sales levels.”

Craig writes that his checks find that iPhone production levels are incrementally higher than he previously thought, “reflecting an expectations of continued strength in demand.”

Craig is estimating that Apple can sell 1.5 million iPhones in China in calendar 2009, assuming a mid-year release, with 4.6 million in calendar 2010, and 5.8 million in 2011. He notes that this assume a price point of $500-$600; he says the forecast could proveto be conservative if Apple is willing sell the phone more cheaply.

从苹果的手机生产供应链分析得到的数据，看来苹果和联通都踌躇满志。 （看深圳富士康iphone OEM 近期逆势招工的报道，一切会越来越明朗)

All that said … my view is that the deal will be finalized in a matter of weeks, after:
1. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) approval
2. Senior Apple execs go to Beijing to reciprocate the China Unicom visit to Cupertino
3. Signatures
50和iphone最后交易可能还有余下步骤待完成
1） 工信部批准
2） 苹果高层到北京回访联通表示感谢
3） 签约宣布



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